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Ian Goldin, a former vice president of the World Bank and a professor at the Oxford Martin School, predicted in a speech at the Advanced School of Finance of Shanghai Jiao Tong University on August 30 that China's economy will continue to grow by more than 6 percent over the next decade and will soon become the largest economy. Eighty percent of the world's future economic growth will come from developing countries.

Golding was a vice president of the World Bank from 2003 to 2006 and has been chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, president of the Development Bank of South Africa and an adviser to former South African President Nelson Mandela.

In his speech, he said that in the future development of the world economy, the growth rate of emerging markets will be three times that of developed countries, in addition to China, India will maintain a growth rate of 6% in the next decade, and the total growth rate of Asia is expected to be around 5%. In addition, Africa and Latin America will grow by about 3%, the United States and Europe will grow by about 1.5%, and Japan will grow by zero. Emerging markets, he argues, will be an agent of change in the world.

The reason, according to Goldin, is that emerging markets, having learned the hard lessons of the economic crises of the 1970s to 1990s, have fared better than the developed world. For example, over the past 35 years, China's national income growth has consistently outpaced population growth, doubling every decade and contributing to a large share of global household income growth. Two-thirds of the 4.9 billion new middle class are also from Asia. In addition, emerging markets have much easier room for change and rapid growth than developed countries in terms of infrastructure construction, investment in education and health, and wealth redistribution.

However, Golding cautioned that in the midst of prosperity, two major threats - rising inequality and the interdependence created by globalization - cannot be ignored.

The gap between emerging markets and developed economies is narrowing, Goldin said, but inequality within countries is increasing, in terms of income, health, opportunity, and so on. If you choose the right time and place, you can take advantage, or you may be left behind by The Times.

The second threat comes from globalization, which will bring more change and development, while connectivity will also create risks. For example, the financial risks caused by the concentration of capital, the gap between the rich and the poor, the systemic risks of infrastructure, extremism, etc., have made all mankind more connected, but also make the crisis at any time. That is why, says Golding, the world needs a stable system to meet this challenge, and one that is global, not just national.

For China, Goldin believes that aging is another risk that cannot be ignored. With the development of medicine and the decline of fertility rate, the number of elderly people in the world will be increasing, which will affect many aspects of politics, economy and other aspects, and the situation will be more serious in China, in 30 years, 700 million people will be over 60 years old in China.