British economist Jim O 'Neill: The economic lessons of Mount Everest

2023-10-31   View:1

Like many people, I was shocked by the photos of the long climbing procession on the Nepalese side of Mount Everest, the world's highest peak, in May. It is feared that as many as 11 people may have died on Everest this climbing season because of delays caused by overcrowding.

About a decade ago, my wife and I climbed to Everest base Camp via the Lukla path in Nepal, so I felt the appeal of this kind of adventure. But beyond the excitement, I remember feeling quite disappointed that so many people were trudging along the trail. The initial excitement wore off, and waiting in the queue for the tough climb to the top seemed pointless to me. We headed home after reaching the last rest point at base Camp. For climbers aiming for Everest, I recommend the lesser-known Gokyo Lakes route in Nepal, which is much smoother and just as spectacular.

Beyond specific conditions like narrow roads, Everest's crowding problem is not that different from many of the other economic and social challenges that policymakers face: an imbalance between supply and demand, and perhaps poor regulation. For example, the market for antibiotics, which I focus on in particular, is failing because the development of new drugs is not keeping up with demand. But more relevant to Everest is the challenge of managing popular tourist attractions. Around the world, more and more people are joining the middle class and understandably want to experience the best the planet has to offer.

Part of the problem with Everest is that supplies are fixed. There are only so many ways up the mountain (of course, some daredevil mountaineers like to go off the beaten path), but the number of tour groups is increasing. So, of course, prices need to rise until supply and demand return to balance.

Nepalese policymakers, hungry for tourism dollars, would loudly reject this suggestion; They might say that ordinary tourists should not be turned away from the doors of such an inviting natural landscape. But in doing so, they would have to introduce and enforce stricter safety and regulatory standards for companies that offer mountaineering services (which would also put upward pressure on prices).

I have pointed out that in order to meet the growing demand of Chinese tourists to visit the Alps, Switzerland must produce more beautiful mountains. Nor is the ancient city of Petra in Jordan, or any other place of interest. In all these cases, the rational economic solution is to allow prices to rise, or to introduce strict regulatory controls.

Many in the pharmaceutical industry would give the same prescription for the antibiotic market. If the price of antibiotics, especially those used to treat gram-negative bacterial infections, rises significantly, the extraordinarily high demand for these drugs will decrease and companies will be incentivised to reinvest in high-risk research, development, and approval of much-needed drugs.

The comparison with the plight of Everest makes sense. The problem is that life-saving medicine is not the same as adventure and vacation. A big increase in costs might solve the problems of rich societies, but it would also make access to medicines harder in most emerging economies. In much of Africa, the Indian subcontinent and elsewhere, paying high prices is not an option. To stop the emergence of antibiotic resistance, which could threaten the world, these societies must be able to manage and prevent infectious diseases effectively and responsive.

I led the UK government's independent review of antibiotic resistance between 2014 and 2016, and have since repeatedly called for large "market access awards" to encourage pharmaceutical companies to pursue the development of new antibiotics. But this measure alone is not enough. The Everest problem shows that we also need policy measures to limit irrational use, which requires more investment in diagnostics. With the right policies, drug companies can demand higher prices for necessary new drugs, but those drugs can only be prescribed if an improved diagnostic tool deems them appropriate.

On reflection, perhaps the Nepalese authorities should introduce diagnostic technology at the Everest entrance checkpoint to test the readiness of would-be climbers. Not only does this deter climbers who can't prove themselves, but it also saves lives.